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Lets begin with the Thanksgiving game…. NFL…
By Eric Cohen on November 21, 2012
Thanksgiving in the USA gives us 3 NFL games on Thursday. I am going back and forth with 2 of them from a handicapping aspect but do have a strong lean in the middle game. When analyzing the week 12 spreads I do see a lot of over reaction on lines that feature teams that struggled last week. Lets begin with the Thanksgiving game.
Dallas -3 vs Washington: The Dallas Cowboys are one of the teams that played very poorly last week which gives us an opportunity to get them at a short price in this game. While the Cowboys struggled to beat the Browns at home the Redskins were crushing the hapless Eagles taking advantage of a shell shocked rookie quarterback in the process. RGIII dominated Philadelphia posting a perfect QB rating but again the Eagles appear to have quit.
Historically Dallas plays very well at home on thanksgiving taking advantage of the opponent traveling on a short week. Tony Romo may not win much in December and January but is close to flawless in November. The Cowboys should be able to exploit a struggling Washington defence and limit the big plays from Griffin. Dallas is not a great home team but will find a way to win and cover in this spot.
San Diego +1 vs Baltimore: Hard to back this San Diego Chargers team that has been money burners the last couple seasons but this is a great spot for them. The Ravens were taken to the limit by the Steelers and their back up quarterback on Sunday night. Baltimore was awful offensively in that game and for some reason Joe Flacco really struggles on the road this year. One week he puts up 55 points at home versus Oakland and the next week he is kept out of the end zone in Pittsburgh. After that physical win over their arch rival Steelers the Ravens are now traveling to the west coast playing back to back road games sandwiched between another game versus Pittsburgh next week. This is the ultimate flat look ahead spot for Baltimore who will not be able to get up for the Chargers the way they will need to. Last year in a similar spot Baltimore a division winner went to San Diego a non playoff team and got smoked. The Chargers should be able to take advantage of a tired uninspired Ravens squad.
Atlanta pick vs Tampa Bay: The theme of riding teams that did not look good last week continues with this selection. The Falcons somehow won a game in which Matt Ryan turned the ball over 5 times and did not throw a touchdown pass. Will this happen 2 weeks in row? Don’t count on it against Tampa Bay’s awful secondary. The Bucs have been great the last 5 weeks winning 4 games and lighting up the scoreboard in the process. Despite the sudden success of the Bucs I will gladly take the 9-1 Falcons without having to lay any points. Atlanta will use last week’s scare versus Arizona as a wake up call and are clearly the superior team in this match up. The Falcons have played better on the road this year and are very aware of the roll the Bucs are on right now. If it were not for the close call versus Arizona you would be forced to lay 3 points with the Falcons so we will gladly take the value with the visitors.
Also leaning with Green Bay +3 at New York